Introduction
Head out west from inner city Auckland, through the fleshpots, the opium dens, the crumby two-bit dives and bohemian excesses of gentrified Ponsonby ... where debauched and flamboyant late middle-aged Hipsters strike theatrical poses on every street corner, their eyebrows arched with intended irony, every glance: a desperate search for that elusive audience, every spicey little bon mot: a careful study in smug erudition, every sipped latte: a discrete expression of refined sensibilities, every sly little wink: a knowing reference to Kurosawa, Foucault or Friedrich Nietzsche ... and you'll soon find yourself breathing an exhausted sigh of relief as you exit that (Tory-leaning) den of iniquity and enter the eastern-most fringes of the People's Republic of Albertville.
Like a little slice of liberal-Left Wellington strategically placed on the shores of the great Waitemata, Albertville - commonly known among the cognoscenti as "the electorate of Mt Albert" - leans
markedly in a Red-Green direction (in much the same way that its most Left-leaning suburb (Arch Hill) tilts away from the Sun and towards the dangerous North-Western motorway). Indeed, the seat tilts Left to a surprising extent for such a relatively genteel and ethnically-white collection of tree lined suburbs
... close as they are to the heart of New Zealand's decidedly Blue Metropolis.
Where the equally European and affluent seats of Eastern Auckland and the North Shore are ideologically as blue as a new tattoo (collectively giving National 62% of the Party Vote in 2014 and the broader Right a whopping 70%, while sparing a mere 24% for Labour+Greens), Albertville came down firmly (albeit a little less lop-sidededly) on the opposite side of the fence ... the two main parties of the Left taking 51%, the Opposition bloc as a whole on 57%, the Nats down at 39% with the broader Right on 43%. That was a Left vote exceeded only in the significantly poorer Pasifika strongholds of Kelston and, in particular of course, the three Labour Heartland seats of South Auckland.
Or to put Albertville's striking singularity in another way ... among Auckland's 19 electorates, Mt Albert has the third highest median personal income and fourth highest median family income. If Party support was anchored as firmly in class as it used to be, you'd expect Mt Albert to generate one of the highest Party Votes for both National and the broader Right, while leaving the Left and Opposition Bloc with some of their lowest vote shares. Instead it's the polar opposite. A mere four seats in the City of Sails recorded higher Labour+Green support than the People's Republic of Albertville, while 14 of 18 Auckland electorates produced lower Left shares and higher National and Right bloc votes. In other words, not only were the wealthy and middling seats of the East and North Shore significantly Bluer than affluent Albertville but so were a series of poorer and middle income electorates throughout Central and West Auckland.
19 Auckland Electorates Income / Party Vote
Median Family Income L + G Oppo Nat Right
Epsom $118 300 26% 30% 64% 69%
Tamaki $115 600 24% 29% 66% 71%
North Shore $ 98 800 25% 31% 62% 68%
Mt Albert $ 97 100 51% 57% 39% 43%
ECB $ 88 900 20% 27% 63% 72%
Auck Cent $ 83 900 44% 51% 45% 49%
Northcote $ 82 900 34% 42% 51% 57%
Pakuranga $ 81 500 22% 30% 60% 70%
Botany $ 80 700 27% 33% 60% 67%
Upper Harb $ 78 800 30% 38% 54% 61%
Mt Roskill $ 76 600 45% 52% 42% 48%
Maugakiekie $ 75 200 45% 52% 42% 47%
Papakura $ 74 900 31% 43% 51% 57%
New Lynn $ 71 000 46% 54% 39% 45%
Te Atatu $ 66 500 43% 53% 41% 47%
Kelston $ 65 100 53% 63% 32% 37%
Manurewa $ 55 000 57% 68% 28% 32%
Mangere $ 53 300 72% 80% 16% 20%
Manukau East $ 50 700 67% 76% 20% 23%
(Note This is currently an unfinished Post. My aim was to start by comparing Mt Albert with other Auckland seats - both in terms of demographics and 2014 Party support - as a backgrounder to the By-Election (half of this initial segment has been completed above). And then I wanted to extend this comparative approach to, first, the suburbs within Mt Albert and, second, a booth-by-booth comparison - integrating the (mesh block census) demographics of each booth's catchment area in the process. (obviously handling all that data with as light and effervescent a touch as poss) As you can see - I woefully ran out of time. So I've just added the suburb-by-suburb stats below (without any written analysis for the time being) and then, from Sunday on, I'll add 2014 polling booth stats, extend the written analysis further and later add the By-Election booth and suburb breakdowns. Call me old fashioned but there you are)
Party Support - Suburb-by-Suburb
In order of Strongest to Weakest Labour + Greens
Total Valid Vote cast in Suburb - to immediate right of Suburb name
All other numbers are 2014 Party-Vote percentages
Oppo = Opposition Bloc
IMP = Internet- Mana
Strong Left = Lab + Green 15 percentage points or more ahead of Nats
Clear Left = Lab + Green 8-14 percentage points ahead of Nats
Marginal Left = Lab + Green 3-7 percentage points ahead of Nats
Evenly Split = Lab + Green and Nats within 2 percentage points of each other
Marginal Right = Nats 3-7 percentage points ahead of Lab + Green
Left vote
LG = Left vote relatively evenly split between Lab and Green (within 5 percentage points of each other)
L = Lab mildly domnates Left vote (6-14 points ahead of Greens)
LL = Lab strongly domnates Left vote (more than 14 points ahead of Greens)
Arch Hill 919
Lab 37 Green 24 L+G 61 IMP 2 NZF 4 Oppo 67 Nat 30
Strong Left
L
Owairaka 1175
Lab 43 Green 14 L+G 57 IMP 1 NZF 4 Oppo 62 Nat 33
Strong Left
LL
Kingsland 1548
Lab 27 Green 28 L+G 55 IMP 2 NZF 4 Oppo 61 Nat 36
Strong Left
LG
Grey Lynn 3189
Lab 28 Green 27 L+G 55 IMP 2 NZF 3 Oppo 60 Nat 38
Strong Left
LG
Sandringham 2228
Lab 36 Green 16 L+G 52 IMP 1 NZF 4 Oppo 57 Nat 38
Clear Left
LL
Morningside 1372
Lab 31 Green 19 L+G 50 IMP 2 NZF 4 Oppo 56 Nat 39
Clear Left
L
Point Chevalier South 905
Lab 32 Green 18 L+G 50 IMP 1 NZF 4 Oppo 55 Nat 39
Clear Left
L
Western Springs 707
Lab 25 Green 23 L+G 49 IMP 2 NZF 4 Oppo 54 Nat 42
Marginal Left
LG
Maungawhau West 355
Lab 30 Green 18 L+G 48 IMP 1 NZF 6 Oppo 54 Nat 42
Marginal Left
L
Westmere 1351
Lab 24 Green 22 L+G 47 IMP 1 NZF 3 Oppo 50 Nat 48
Evenly Split
LG
Mt Eden North-West 389
Lab 25 Green 20 L+G 45 IMP 2 NZF 4 Oppo 51 Nat 46
Evenly Split
LG
Mt Albert 3978
Lab 28 Green 16 L+G 44 IMP 1 NZF 4 Oppo 49 Nat 46
Evenly Split
L
Balmoral West 798
Lab 27 Green 17 L+G 44 IMP 1 NZF 4 Oppo 48 Nat 47
Marginal Right
L
Point Chevalier 2948
Lab 25 Green 18 L+G 43 IMP 1 NZF 6 Oppo 49 Nat 46
Marginal Right
L
