Monday, 14 March 2016

Next National Leader

I see there's been a smattering of discussion at Public Address on (amongst other things) leadership succession in a post-Key National Party.

Here are the findings of Public Pollsters over the last 5 years.

   HD   = Herald-DigiPoll

    FI    = Fairfax Ipsos

    CB   = Colmar Brunton

(Note: Only One News Colmar Brunton provide Don't Know figures. With the other polls, I'm reluctant to simply subtract the aggregate potential leader figures from 100% to reach a Don't Know figure because I can't be sure there weren't other Nat politicians receiving smaller shares of support who were excluded from the tables in the respective poll reports)

                                      Next National Party Leader Polls                                  
         Poll                                                   Politician                                             
 HD  (Aug 2015)       English 30       Joyce 14       Bennett 11       Bridges 7         
  FI   (Sep 2014)        English 33       Joyce 22       Bennett 11       Bridges 9        
 CB   (Sep 2014)        English 28       Joyce 16       Bennett 7         Collins 2         
                                                                  Woodhouse 2        Don't Know 41       
 CB   (July 2013)        English 23       Joyce 16       Collins 11       Other 5            
                                                                                             Don't Know 45            
 HD   (June 2013)       English 30       Joyce 25       Collins 13                               
 HD   (Nov 2011)        English 27       Joyce 19       Collins 16      Brownlee 11    

Joyce's stocks appear to have taken a bit of a tumble (albeit in the context of a long-term roller-coaster ride), Bennett's nowhere near as popular as many pundits seem to assume, nor is Bridges. Collins and Brownlee were contenders back in 2011, but the Oravida (May 2014) and Dirty Politics (August 2014) scandals pretty much did for the reputation of the former while the latter's gone completely off the radar. That leaves Wild Bill English as the perpetual frontrunner. Interesting, given his unpopularity back in the early Zeros, leading National to its historic low of 21% at the 2002 General Election. The Finance Minister and Deputy PM appears to have rehabilitated his reputation as a future leader. Bear in mind, though, that less than a third of respondents choose English (there's always a significant Don't Know factor) and, if the Sep 2014 Colmar Brunton is anything to go by, less than a quarter of non-National Party supporters favour him. .

The Sep 2014 Colmar Brunton supplies not only Entire Sample figures (Total) but also the breakdown specifically for National Party supporters (National). They've also provided enough detail to allow me to calculate potential leader figures among the supporters of all parties other than National (Other Parties). This segment (making up roughly half of all respondents) is dominated by Opposition party supporters but also includes those voting for the Conservatives, the minor parties of Government and the Undecideds.

Colmar Brunton also supply stats for those demographics more likely than average to support (variously) English and Joyce.

       Next National Party Leader       Colmar Brunton  (Sep 2014)               
     Politician                Total                  National              Other Parties       
     English                       28                         33                            23                   
     Joyce                          16                          23                            9                   
     Bennett                        7                           7                              7                  
     Collins                         2                           2                              2                  
     Woodhouse                  2                          1                               3                 
     Other                            4                          3                               5                 
     Don't Know                 41                        32                             50                 
   Above Average Support for    English                                                       
     Wellington residents     39                                                                           
     Men                               34                                                                           
    Above Average Support for    Joyce                                                         
     Age 55 +                        24                                                                          
     National Supporters       23                                                                           
     High Income                  22                                                                          


Latest Poll from Labour's UMR:

                                      Next National Party Leader Polls                                  
         Poll                                                   Politician                                             
 UMR  (Oct 2016)       English 21       Joyce 16       Bennett 11       Collins  6