Eight months have elapsed since the 2017 General Election.
Here I set out Preferred PM comparisons for polls conducted over the first 8 months following the last four changes of government (1990 / 1999 / 2008 / 2017).
For simplicity, I focus solely on the Major Party leaders and employ TV One's unbroken series of Heylen / Colmar Brunton polls.
Month Prime Minister Oppo Leader Lead
1 Month No Polling
2 Months
Post-2017 Ardern 37 English 28 A +9
Post-1990 Bolger 27 Moore 23 B +4
Post-1999 No Polling
Post-2008 No Polling
3 Months
Post-2017 No Polling
Post-1990 No Polling
Post-1999 Clark 43 Shipley 16 C +27
Post-2008 Key 51 Goff 6 K +45
4 Months
Post-2017 No Polling
Post-1990 Bolger 23 Moore 20 B +3
Post-1999 Clark 48 Shipley 15 C +33
Post-2008 No Polling
5 Months
Post-2017 Ardern 41 English 20 A +21
Post-1990 Bolger 22 Moore 19 B +3
Post-1999 Clark 46 Shipley 15 C +31
Post-2008 Key 51 Goff 6 K +45
6 Months
Post-2017 No Polling
Post-1990 Bolger 17 Moore 21 M +4
Post-1999 Clark 41 Shipley 17 C +24
Post-2008 No Polling
7 Months
Post-2017 Ardern 37 Bridges 10 A +27
Post-1990 Bolger 18 Moore 24 M +6
Post-1999 Clark 35 Shipley 18 C +17
Post-2008 No Polling
8 Months
Post-2017 Ardern 41 Bridges 12 A +29
Post-1990 Bolger 17 Moore 26 M +9
Post-1999 Clark 38 Shipley 18 C +20
Post-2008 Key 51 Goff 7 K +44
By the 11 month mark (the equivalent of Aug 2018), ... Clark had fallen to 30%, Bolger was down to 12% while John Key - the Teflon Man, the smiling assassin, the likely lad who always manages to land sunnyside up - moved like the merest of whispers, like the faintest, most whimsical of lazy summer breezes ... down one point to 50.
