Wednesday 30 May 2018

Jacinda-Comparatif





Eight months have elapsed since the 2017 General Election.

Here I set out Preferred PM comparisons for polls conducted over the first 8 months following the last four changes of government (1990 / 1999 / 2008 / 2017).

For simplicity, I focus solely on the Major Party leaders and employ TV One's unbroken series of Heylen / Colmar Brunton polls.




Month          Prime Minister       Oppo Leader      Lead


1 Month                       No Polling


2 Months
Post-2017         Ardern 37          English 28           A +9
Post-1990         Bolger 27           Moore 23            B +4
Post-1999                      No Polling
Post-2008                      No Polling


3 Months
Post-2017                      No Polling
Post-1990                      No Polling
Post-1999          Clark 43             Shipley 16         C +27
Post-2008             Key 51                  Goff 6          K +45


4 Months
Post-2017                       No Polling
Post-1990          Bolger 23              Moore 20           B +3
Post-1999            Clark 48             Shipley 15          C +33
Post-2008                       No Polling


5 Months
Post-2017          Ardern 41             English 20          A +21
Post-1990           Bolger 22              Moore 19          B +3
Post-1999             Clark 46            Shipley 15          C +31
Post-2008               Key 51                  Goff 6           K +45


6 Months
Post-2017                          No Polling
Post-1990             Bolger 17              Moore 21          M +4
Post-1999               Clark 41            Shipley 17          C +24
Post-2008                          No Polling


7 Months
Post-2017            Ardern 37             Bridges 10          A +27
Post-1990             Bolger 18              Moore 24          M +6
Post-1999               Clark 35            Shipley 18          C +17
Post-2008                          No Polling


8 Months
Post-2017              Ardern 41            Bridges 12         A +29
Post-1990               Bolger 17             Moore 26          M +9
Post-1999                 Clark 38           Shipley 18          C +20
Post-2008                    Key 51                Goff 7           K +44




By the 11 month mark (the equivalent of Aug 2018),  ... Clark had fallen to 30%, Bolger was down to 12% while John Key - the Teflon Man, the smiling assassin, the likely lad who always manages to land sunnyside up - moved like the merest of whispers, like the faintest, most whimsical of lazy summer breezes ... down one point to 50.







Thursday 23 February 2017

Albertville





Introduction

Head out west from inner city Auckland, through the fleshpots, the opium dens, the crumby two-bit dives and bohemian excesses of gentrified Ponsonby ... where debauched and flamboyant late middle-aged Hipsters strike theatrical poses on every street corner, their eyebrows arched with intended irony, every glance: a desperate search for that elusive audience, every spicey little bon mot: a careful study in smug erudition, every sipped latte: a discrete expression of refined sensibilities, every sly little wink: a knowing reference to Kurosawa, Foucault or Friedrich Nietzsche ... and you'll soon find yourself breathing an exhausted sigh of relief as you exit that (Tory-leaning) den of iniquity and enter the eastern-most fringes of the People's Republic of Albertville.

Like a little slice of liberal-Left Wellington strategically placed on the shores of the great Waitemata, Albertville - commonly known among the cognoscenti as "the electorate of Mt Albert" - leans
markedly in a Red-Green direction (in much the same way that its most Left-leaning suburb (Arch Hill) tilts away from the Sun and towards the dangerous North-Western motorway). Indeed, the seat tilts Left to a surprising extent for such a relatively genteel and ethnically-white collection of tree lined suburbs
...  close as they are to the heart of New Zealand's decidedly Blue Metropolis.

Where the equally European and affluent seats of Eastern Auckland and the North Shore are ideologically as blue as a new tattoo (collectively giving National 62% of the Party Vote in 2014 and the broader Right a whopping 70%, while sparing a mere 24% for Labour+Greens), Albertville came down firmly (albeit a little less lop-sidededly) on the opposite side of the fence  ...  the two main parties of the Left taking 51%, the Opposition bloc as a whole on 57%, the Nats down at 39% with the broader Right on 43%. That was a Left vote exceeded only in the significantly poorer Pasifika strongholds of Kelston and, in particular of course, the three Labour Heartland seats of South Auckland.

Or to put Albertville's striking singularity in another way ...  among Auckland's 19 electorates, Mt Albert has the third highest median personal income and fourth highest median family income. If Party support was anchored as firmly in class as it used to be, you'd expect Mt Albert to generate one of the highest Party Votes for both National and the broader Right, while leaving the Left and Opposition Bloc with some of their lowest vote shares. Instead it's the polar opposite. A mere four seats in the City of Sails recorded higher Labour+Green support than the People's Republic of Albertville, while 14 of  18 Auckland electorates produced lower Left shares and higher National and Right bloc votes. In other words, not only were the wealthy and middling seats of the East and North Shore significantly Bluer than affluent Albertville but so were a series of poorer and middle income electorates throughout Central and West Auckland. 





  19 Auckland Electorates                  Income   Party Vote                
    Median Family Income           L +     Oppo        Nat       Right       
   Epsom         $118 300                 26%       30%          64%        69%     
  Tamaki         $115 600                 24%       29%          66%        71%      
  North Shore  $ 98 800                  25%       31%          62%        68%      
  Mt Albert    $ 97 100                  51%       57%          39%        43%      
  ECB              $ 88 900                  20%       27%          63%        72%     
  Auck Cent    $ 83 900                   44%       51%          45%        49%      
  Northcote     $ 82 900                   34%       42%          51%        57%     
  Pakuranga     $ 81 500                  22%        30%          60%        70%     
  Botany           $ 80 700                  27%       33%          60%        67%     
  Upper Harb    $ 78 800                 30%        38%          54%        61%     
  Mt Roskill      $ 76 600                 45%        52%          42%        48%     
  Maugakiekie   $ 75 200                45%        52%           42%        47%     
  Papakura         $ 74 900                31%        43%           51%        57%    
  New Lynn       $ 71 000                46%        54%           39%        45%     
  Te Atatu          $ 66 500                43%        53%           41%        47%     
  Kelston            $ 65 100                53%        63%           32%        37%     
  Manurewa       $ 55 000                 57%        68%           28%        32%    
  Mangere           $ 53 300                72%        80%           16%        20%     
  Manukau East  $ 50 700                67%        76%            20%       23%     
                                                                                                                     





(Note  This is currently an unfinished Post.  My aim was to start by comparing Mt Albert with other Auckland seats - both in terms of demographics and 2014 Party support - as a backgrounder to the By-Election (half of this initial segment has been completed above). And then I wanted to extend this comparative approach to, first, the suburbs within Mt Albert and, second, a booth-by-booth comparison  - integrating the (mesh block census) demographics of each booth's catchment area in the process. (obviously handling all that data with as light and effervescent a touch as poss) As you can see - I woefully ran out of time. So I've just added the suburb-by-suburb stats below (without any written analysis for the time being) and then, from Sunday on,  I'll add 2014 polling booth  stats, extend the written analysis further and later add the By-Election booth and suburb breakdowns. Call me old fashioned but there you are)




Party Support - Suburb-by-Suburb


In order of Strongest to Weakest Labour + Greens



Total Valid Vote cast in Suburb - to immediate right of Suburb name

All other numbers are 2014 Party-Vote percentages

Oppo = Opposition Bloc
IMP = Internet- Mana


Strong Left = Lab + Green 15 percentage points or more ahead of Nats
Clear Left = Lab + Green 8-14 percentage points ahead of Nats
Marginal Left = Lab + Green 3-7 percentage points ahead of Nats
Evenly Split = Lab + Green and Nats within 2 percentage points of each other
Marginal Right = Nats 3-7 percentage points ahead of Lab + Green

Left vote
LG = Left vote relatively evenly split between Lab and Green (within 5 percentage points of each other)
L = Lab mildly domnates Left vote (6-14 points ahead of Greens)
LL = Lab strongly domnates Left vote (more than 14 points ahead of Greens)



Arch Hill    919
Lab 37       Green 24       L+G 61       IMP 2       NZF 4       Oppo 67       Nat 30
Strong Left
L


Owairaka  1175        
Lab 43        Green 14        L+G 57        IMP 1       NZF 4       Oppo 62        Nat 33
Strong Left
LL


Kingsland     1548
Lab 27        Green 28        L+G 55        IMP 2        NZF 4        Oppo 61        Nat 36
Strong Left
LG


Grey Lynn    3189
Lab 28      Green 27         L+G 55        IMP 2        NZF 3        Oppo 60        Nat 38
Strong Left
LG


Sandringham    2228
Lab 36        Green 16        L+G 52        IMP 1        NZF 4        Oppo 57        Nat 38
Clear Left
LL


Morningside    1372
Lab 31         Green 19        L+G 50        IMP 2        NZF 4        Oppo 56        Nat 39
Clear Left
L
 

Point Chevalier South    905
Lab 32        Green 18         L+G 50        IMP 1        NZF 4        Oppo 55        Nat 39
Clear Left
L


Western Springs    707
Lab 25        Green 23        L+G 49        IMP 2        NZF 4        Oppo 54        Nat 42
Marginal Left
LG


Maungawhau West     355
Lab 30        Green 18        L+G 48        IMP 1        NZF 6        Oppo 54        Nat 42
Marginal Left
L


Westmere    1351 
Lab 24        Green 22        L+G 47        IMP 1        NZF 3        Oppo 50        Nat 48
Evenly Split
LG


Mt Eden North-West    389
Lab 25        Green 20        L+G 45        IMP 2        NZF 4        Oppo 51        Nat 46
Evenly Split
LG


Mt Albert    3978
Lab 28        Green 16        L+G 44        IMP 1        NZF 4        Oppo 49        Nat 46
Evenly Split
L


Balmoral West    798
Lab 27        Green 17        L+G 44        IMP 1       NZF 4       Oppo 48         Nat 47
Marginal Right
L


Point Chevalier    2948
Lab 25        Green 18        L+G 43        IMP 1        NZF 6        Oppo 49        Nat 46
Marginal Right
L















Thursday 8 December 2016

Fairfax-Nielsen poll - Exploring a Post-Key World






Fairfax-Nielsen Poll

Weighted On-line Poll conducted in the immediate wake of  Key's shock resignation on Monday (carried out "on the evening of December 5, the day John Key announced his resignation, and on the morning of December 6").




 Fairfax-Nielsen    Next National Party Leader Poll              
   Who should be the next National Party leader and Prime Minister ?     
                                                                                                                    
     Don't Know  39%          Bill English  37%          Steven Joyce  6%      
     Judith Collins 4%           Paula Bennett 4%         Amy Adams 3%       
                                                                                             Other 6%         
                                                                                                                    








 Fairfax-Nielsen     Political Fallout  Poll                                   
   How does John Key stepping down affect your likelihood to vote for   
   National at next year's election ?                                                             
                                                                                                                    
      Much More Likely to Vote National    5%                                            
      Slightly More Likely to Vote National  4%                                          
                                                                 (= 9%)                                        
       Makes No Difference  75%                                                                  
                                                                                                                    
       Slightly Less Likely to Vote National  9%                                           
       Much Less Likely to Vote National     7%                                          
                                                               (= 16%)                                        
                                                                                                                    








 Fairfax-Nielsen    Main Beneficiary of Key Resignation      
     Who is the main Beneficiary of John Key's  Resignation ?                   
                                                                                                                     
             Labour  46%              NZF  9%              National  8%                    
                                 (No Other Data Provided)                                          
                                                                                                                     








 Fairfax-Nielsen        Early Election Poll                              
       Should there be an Early Election ?                                              
                                                                                                             
      Yes - as soon as possible  17%                                                      
       Yes - in next 6 Months    13%                                                       
                                             (= 30%)                                                    
                                                                                                              
        No - New Person should be given some time   37%                    
        No - It makes no difference anyway                  24%                    
                                                                                (= 61%)                 
                                                                                                               
         Don't Know  9%                                                                           
                                                                                                               










Monday 28 November 2016

Updated CB






Colmar Brunton Polls since 2014

______________________________________________________________________________

(1) Broad

 Oppo  = Lab+Green+IMP+NZF
 Govt   = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF
 Right  = Govt+Cons

 O/G Lead
2 = Numbers in Red = Oppo Lead
2 = Numbers in Blue  = Govt Lead
Equal = Oppo and Govt tied

 CB  One News Colmar Brunton



                                     Oppo       Govt         Right      O/G Lead   
   2014 Election             46             49              53                3           
 Colmar Brunton        Polls since 2014 Election:                          
   2015                                                                                                
  CB  (Feb 2015)            47              51              52               4           
  CB  (April 2015)          48              50              52               2           
  CB  (May 2015)           48              50              52               2          

  CB  (July 2015)            53              48              48               5          
  CB  (Sep 2015)             51              48              48               3          
  CB  (Oct 2015)             52              48              48               4           
   2016                                                                                                 
  CB  (Feb 2016)             50              48              49               2           
  CB  (April 2016)           47              52              52               5           
  CB  (May 2016)            50              49              50               1          
  CB  (Sep 2016)             50              50              51            Equal      
  CB  (Nov 2016)            49              51              51                2          







______________________________________________________________________________

(2) Specific


 L+           = Labour + Greens
  Rank           = Strength of L+G support
 NZF             = New Zealand First
 Oppo           =  Lab+Green+IMP+NZF
 Nat               = National
 LG/N          = National's percentage point lead over aggregate Labour + Green support
 Govt             = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF


 CB  One News Colmar Brunton



                             L+G    Rank    NZF    Oppo      Nat   LG/N   Govt     
   2014 Election      36       (5)          9          46          47       11        49        
   Colmar Brunton Polls since 2014 Election:                                           
    2015                                                                                                          
  CB  (Feb)              41       (3)          6          47          49        8         51       
  CB  (April)            40       (3)          7          48          49        9         50       
  CB  (May)             41       (3)          7          48          48        7         50       
  CB  (July)              45       (1)          7          53          47        2         48        
  CB  (Sep)               44       (1)          7          51          47        3         48       
  CB  (Oct)               43       (2)          9           52          47       4         48        
   2016                                                                                                            
  CB  (Feb)               40       (3)        10           50          47        7        48       
  CB  (April)             38       (4)         9            47          50       12       52       
  CB  (May)              41        (3)        9            50          48        7        49       
  CB  (Sep)               39        (4)       11            50          48        9        50      
  CB  (Nov)               39       (4)       10            49          50       11       51